Category: weather
GIVING THANKS
If ever there was an example of how connected we are in the world, not since Chernobyl have consequences beyond one’s control have had such an impact. The debris field resulting from the tsunami in Japan heading across the Pacific Ocean towards our west coast. No one wants to talk a solution, if there is one,as it would likely be so costly it is difficult to discuss.
On a much lighter note, Memorial Day weekend is almost here and that means the Block Island Race for many. the weather should be very nice for those staying ashore and a puzzle for those of us racing.
THE HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2012
Spring came early and the winter was relatively mild.The ocean had had plenty of time to start warming.Tropical storm Alberto is moving up the East Coast. We expect to have a drought here in the Northeast. My conclusion would be that this would be an active Hurricane season. It seems I am wrong.
SOMETHING HAS CHANGED
Something has changed. I never saw vultures around here before. I would see them in Maryland driving south. I saw them all over California. But never around here. What is different?
Another notable event is the destruction of the “ghost ship” off the coast of Alaska having arrived from Japan as a result of the Tsunami.
WORLD CURRENT
I was alerted to this by Sailing Anarchy.
GLOBAL WARMING?
I cannot confirm that we are experiencing global warming, but I can tell you something is happening. Last summer’s transatlantic race sailing through the Azores high that had expanded to cover the entire north atlantic, unusual at best. A virtually snowless winter here in the northeast and really quite warm. And Spring is here, six weeks early.
It is difficult to imagine that the growing population and continued use of fossil fuels is not having an impact.
SOLAR FLARE, DON’T TRUST YOUR GPS TODAY
A massive solar storm is due to arrive at Earth early Thursday, and is expected to shake the globe’s magnetic field while expanding the Northern Lights.
A giant blast of plasma spat from the sun at as much as 4 million miles per hour Tuesday — by some measures the largest solar event since late 2006 — and it could lead to serious issues on Earth, forcing some planes to reroute, knocking out power grids, and blacking out radios.
The sun unleashed the cosmic double whammy late March 6, erupting with two major flares to cap a busy day of powerful solar storms, Space.com reported. One of the flares is the most powerful solar eruption so far this year.
“Super Tuesday? You bet!” joked Joseph Kunches, a space weather scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The storm grew as it raced outward from the sun, expanding like a giant soap bubble, scientists said.
“It’s hitting us right in the nose,” said Kunches.
Both of the huge flares ranked as X-class storms, the strongest type of solar flares the sun can have. They followed several weaker, but still powerful, sun storms on Tuesday and came just days after another major solar flare on Sunday night.
“By some measures this is the strongest one since December of 2006,” Kunches explained. Solar activity has already led to an R3 level radio blackout on NOAA’s space weather scale, he explained, a midstrength event on a scale that reaches to R5. Such effects are caused by X-ray emissions from the sun.
The bigger effects will hit the planet over the next 24 hours.
“Power grid operators have all been alerted.”
– Joseph Kunches, NOAA space weather scientist
For one thing, geomagnetic storms — disturbances in the geomagnetic field that surrounds the planet — should hit the G3 level, midway up the scale. That could lead to surges in power lines (a major problem for power companies) and issues with satellites.
“Power grid operators have all been alerted, as well as the regulatory agencies that all pay attention to this,” Kunches said.
GPS users will also be affected because of the highly charged atmosphere; it’s very possible that certain types of applications will be interrupted, specifically highly precise calculations and the high-frequency communications that airplanes rely upon.
Indeed, some polar flights have already been affected, he said.
“Some have already taken action to reroute to ensure their [high-frequency communication],” Kunches said.
Solar radiation storms could reach as high as S4, he noted, which could cause astronauts on the International Space Station to seek shelter from the heightened radiation levels associated with such a storm.
These effects should last about 24 hours, probably lingering overnight into the early morning hours on Friday, pending another eruption — “and we think there will be more coming,” Kunches said.
The upside? Some areas may experience a wonderful display of the Northern Lights.
“It’s the treat that we get when the sun erupts,” he said.
ANNIVERSARY OF THE BLIZZARD OF ’78
I was working in Providence, RI. I had driven to work like any morning, snow was threatening, but had not yet started. No sooner than I walked into the office, my boss came in and said :”fill your gas tank and go home now.” The snow started quickly and was thick and heavy in no time at all. I had to stop several times, under overpasses to clear the windshield as the wipers could not keep up with the accumulation. I made it back to Newport and once the snow stopped I shoveled out but there was not much point as most of the roads remained unplowed for some time.
I will never know for certain, but I felt like I was one of the only cars to escape providence; particularly when you see the photos of the highway after the blizzard of ’78.
PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SEES 6 MORE WEEKS OF WINTER
Groundhog Day 2012: Punxsutawney Phil sees shadow, 6 more weeks of winter
Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil. (Groundhog.org)At 7:25 a.m. this morning, amidst mostly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the low 30s, Groundhog Phil saw his shadow in the little town of Punxsutawney, Pa.
According to folklore, Phil’s sighting of his own shadow means there will be 6 more weeks of winter. Had Phil not seen his shadow, it would have meant “there will be an early spring.”
If Phil’s forecast is right, it signals a dramatic reversal from the mild weather pattern affecting much of the country. Many parts of the central and eastern U.S. have seen temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal in recent days. On February 1, just 19% of the Lower 48 had snow cover compared to 52% at this time last year.
Historic odds heavily favor a forecast for winter to last deep into March. Since the Groundhog’s first prediction in 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 99 times and failed to spot it just 16 times. There are 9 missing years in the record, but Phil has issued an forecast without exception.
But just how accurate is the prognosticator of prognosticators?