From Commander’s Weather:


Summary…   Sandy has slowed – Will be transitioning into a huge storm late weekend/early next week and will impact much of the East Coast, especially the Mid Atlantic and NE US.


1) At 11am Fri, Sandy was located at 26.7n/76.9w, about 25 miles to the NNE of Great Abaco Island (or about 460 miles to SSE of Charleston, SC

a) Movement has slowed and is now moving N at 6 mph – this slow down was expected

b) Max sustained winds remain around 80 mph

c) Lowest pressure is 970mbs or 28.64″

d) Hurricane force winds extend out 35 miles from center and Tropical Storm force winds out 275 miles from the center

2) Sandy should move slowly NNW to N today and much of tonight and then turn NNE and NE on Sat

a) Sandy will start to trend back to the N later Sun and then NW Mon

b) the worst conditions thru the weekend will be offshore, closer to the storm

c) but, there will still be some squalls and gusty winds along the coast as well and will have very big seas along the coast

3) Increasing upper wind shear over Sandy along with some drier air working into it may cause some weakening later today thru tomorrow

4) However, Sandy will remain a powerful system

a) the overall wind field around Sandy has expanded outwards and seeing some reports of winds of 45-55 mph off southern Florida

5) We do not have all the new model data in yet, but will have all the available models for the next advisory  – at this time, with the data we are seeing, do not see changing much

6) The deep trough coming towards the eastern US will grab Sandy and turn it back to the NW

a) the tricky part remains as to when this occurs

b) we still have a variety of solutions – from Delmarva to Maine

7) We feel Sandy will make the turn sometime late Sun night/early Mon and head towards the central New Jersey coast

8) Sandy will start to lose its tropical characteristics Mon, but at the same time,the deep trough will provide an additional energy injection and Sandy will actually strengthen

9) As the transition away from a tropical system occurs, the wind field will expand out further, but again, this will not mean any weakening

10) We are still seeing very low pressures being forecast by the varying models – down to 950 mbs or less by Monday night which is as low as it ever gets in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States

a) this may be overdone to a certain extent, but this will be a very powerful and potentially dangerous storm system

11) Expect a major impact from the eastern Carolinas to Maine from Sandy

a) right now, the hardest hit area looks to be from southern Jersey to southern New England

b) however, we still have to watch closely the exact track

12) Gales will extend over 300 miles to the E and NE of the track and several hundred miles to the W by Sunday night and Monday

13) Hurricane force winds are possible as far as 100 miles from the center by Monday and some hurricane force wind gusts will be possible from portions of southern New England, thru Long Island, and New Jersey as it looks now

14) For now, will keep landfall occurring during Mon night

15) This a potentially a very serious ocean flooding situation for Long Island Sound as the track from SE towards the NW toward NYC will bring huge seas with it tending to funnel the water thru the Sound

16) Serious ocean flooding is also very likely along the S and E coast of New England and the S coast

of Long Island especially if the storm takes the route closer to NYC, while less impact if further S

a) Huge seas of 25-40+ ft are expected to develop off the East Coast over the weekend into early next week.


 Expected impacts from Sandy

Western Long Island Sound…Possible major impact from ocean flooding Monday night and Tuesday. NE winds increasing to 20-30 Sunday then to 25-35 Sunday night and to 30-45 by late Monday. NE-E winds peak at 50-70 mph with possible gusts to hurricane force late Monday/early Tuesday. E-SE winds diminish slowly Tuesday. Tides may peak at 4-7 ft above normal late Monday night and Tuesday.



Date Time Lat Long Movement Wind Gust Press Position
  EDT N W mph Mph mph MB  
Fri 10/26 1100 26.7 76.9 N 6 80 90 970 25 mi NNE of Great Abaco


FORECAST TRACK                                      

Date Time Lat Long Movement Wind Gust Press Position
  EDT N W Mph Mph mph MB  
Fri, 10/26 2000 27.5 77.2 NNW 8 80 90 968 150 mi E of Palm Beach
Sat, 10/27 0800 29.5 77.1 NNE 10 75 85 967 245 mi ESE Jacksonville
Sat, 10/27 2000 31.0 76.0 NE 11 75 85 966 300 mi SSE of CapeHatteras
Sun, 10/28 0800 32.7 74.0 NNE 12 75 85 966 220 mi SSE of CapeHatteras
Mon, 10/29 0800 37.0 72.0 NNW 10 80 90 960 180 mi ENE of CapeHatteras
Mon, 10/29 2000 39.0 73.0 NW 10 80 90 955 120 mi SE of NYC
Tue 10/30 0800 40.6 75.2 NW 10 70 80 962  Just E of Allentown, PA


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ws lirakis

a sailor who carries a camera

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